Week Overview 16-20 December 2024;

Last week; Retail Sales figures from Turkey have been announced. Retail sales, which increased by 2.5% in September, increased by around 0.2% in October. It continues to be observed that economic activity has slowed down somewhat. 

 On the US front, critical Inflation, Unemployment Benefit Applications and Producer Price Index figures were announced last week. Consumer Price Index (TUFE) was announced as 2.70%, in line with expectations! Core inflation (excluding energy and food) was announced as 0.30% monthly, within expectations. Inflation in the USA increased slightly compared to the previous month. On the other hand, the PPI figures, called the critical Producer‘s Inflation in the USA, were announced as 0.4% when the expectations were 0.2%, which increased the strength of the dollar even more! Following the data, interest rate cut expectations for 2025 continue to be priced as 3 0.25 basis points!

This week may be the last active week of the year before Christmas pricing! Today, we will again observe the course of the retail branch of the American economy with the Retail Sales data from the USA. On Wednesday, the most important trading day of the week; After meeting the inflation figures from the UK and Europe, all eyes will be on the FED‘s interest rate decision! We continue to expect a 0.25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed. But more importantly, it will be in President Powell‘s future projection speech after the interest rate decision! While a speech that may reduce the chances of a reduction in FED interest rates in 2025 may increase sales in precious metals, if there is a speech about the FED‘s continuation of interest rate cuts due to employment, we may see an upward movement in precious metals again.

On the other hand, on Thursday; Interest rate decisions of Japan and England, which directly affect the strength of the dollar index in money markets, will be announced! On the US front; Along with the 3rd Quarter GDP figures, Unemployment Benefit Application figures can be considered the most important data of the day! On the last trading day of the week; Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) from the USA will be announced! We would like to remind you again that FED Chairman Powell follows the PCE data closely and that it is a data that directly affects the FED‘s interest rate decision. While a decrease in PCE will increase the demand for precious metals, an increase in PCE may cause a decrease in demand for precious metals!

In the geopolitical developments corner; Israel; He approved the plan to double the population in the Golan Heights as he started the week, citing political instability in Syria as the reason! Then, the possibility of an agreement in the Gaza strip continues to be discussed! The increase in domestic demand, especially due to import quotas, continues to cause price differences. At the beginning of the week, the difference between the free market and the global market on an ounce basis for gold started around $35!