Weekly Outlook (March 03-07, 2025)

As we begin a new week, spot gold is attempting to turn the selling pressure into a positive trend once again. We continue to anticipate that demand for precious metals will rise in the coming days, especially due to the uncertainty surrounding the political agenda and the increase in the likelihood of a FED rate cut, which has risen from one to three.

"Last week, on the U.S. front, the Critical Unemployment Claims came in at 243K, above the expected 220K, which has once again raised the possibility of a downturn in the U.S. labor market. On the other hand, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index decreased from 2.9% in the previous month to 2.6% in January. Following this crucial data, the likelihood of a FED rate cut has risen to 0.75 basis points in the 2025 year-end forecasts."

"On the Turkish front, last week, the critical Q4 growth figures were expected to be 2.6%, but they were announced around 3.00%, which was seen as a positive sign for the Turkish economy. This week, we started with critical inflation data from Turkey. Monthly inflation figures dropped to 39.05%. With this decrease in inflation, expectations for an interest rate cut by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on Thursday this week are starting to rise once again."

"On the U.S. front, we will be closely monitoring several critical data points this week. On the first trading day of the week, with the crucial PMI figures, and on Wednesday, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which can be considered a leading indicator for the labor market, will be of particular importance. On the last trading day of the week, the critical Nonfarm Payroll and Unemployment Rate figures will continue to be at the forefront of the market‘s attention. The potential deterioration in the labor market may support the FED’s decision to cut interest rates. After the employment reports, FED Chairman Powell‘s market comments are likely to increase volatility once again."

"Technically, the $2830 level corresponds to the 233-day exponential moving average zone for gold. If the price continues to stay above this level, we can expect the upward movement in gold to continue. Specifically, the Fibonacci levels at $2950/$3120 remain as our medium-term targets."

,Tabii ons altındaki hareket ile birlikte Türkiye’de gram altın fiyatları da tarihi rekor fiyatlamalara ulaşmış durumda. Özellikle bu hafta TCMB faiz kararı açıklanacak, faizlerde indirimlerin devamını bekliyoruz. Faiz indirimleri de kur politikasında bir miktar yukarı yönlü harekete sebep olurken Kapalıçarşıda Dolar/TL fiyatları 36,44’lerde seyrederken gram altın fiyatları ise 3550/TL ile rekor tazeleyerek bu hafta 3410/TL’lerde fiyatlama devam ediyor. Türkiye’de ons bazında primler $35 kadar yükselirken, kilogramda ise Londra piyasasına göre $1200 civarında oluşmuş durumda.

CME FED Watch’a göre, Temmuz ayında 0,25 baz puan faiz indirim ihtimali %45’lerde fiyatlanıyor.

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