Weekly Outlook (March 17-21, 2025)

Last week, critical inflation data in the U.S. was announced below expectations, and the Dollar Index continued to maintain a weak outlook. The political uncertainty environment continues to benefit precious metals. Especially with inflation figures falling below expectations, the likelihood of a rate cut by the FED continues to rise day by day.

As we approach the end of the first quarter, sales in the U.S. stock markets are deepening due to political uncertainty. On the other hand, the decline in oil prices, following the decision on oil production by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, continues to support the decrease in U.S. inflation.

This week, Wednesday will be a particularly critical day on the U.S. front! The FED’s interest rate decision and the speech by FED Chairman Powell will be the main focus of the markets. We do not expect any change in interest rates, at least for now. However, the questions regarding the political process in Chairman Powell’s remarks will be very important. During the previous meeting, the FED Chairman did not make any statements regarding Trump’s policies. However, if the market perceives an early rate cut due to Trump’s policies, the positive sentiment in precious metals may continue.

Regarding precious metals, the question remains whether a daily close above the psychological resistance level of $3000, which we have been waiting for a long time, will happen. Particularly, Trump’s uncertainty process, the increased possibility of a rate cut by the FED, and the resurgence of geopolitical risks are emerging as supporting factors for gold. Technically, staying above the $2872 level will support continued positive movement in gold. The Fibonacci levels of $3030 and $3125 above can be set as short/medium-term targets.

Of course, along with the movement in gold, gram gold prices in Turkey have reached historical record levels. The interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) have led to a slight upward movement in exchange rates, while gram gold prices at the Grand Bazaar have broken records, being priced at 3560 TRY this week. In Turkey, premiums in terms of ounces have risen by up to $20, while the difference in kilograms compared to the London market has reached around $700.According to the CME FED Watch, the likelihood of a 0.25 basis point rate cut in July is priced at around 48%.

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